考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计

刘小平;张立杰;沈凯凯;高强

兵工学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8) : 1586-1592.

EN 投稿 期刊 文章 图表 检索
高级检索

  • 主管：中国科学技术协会

    主编：许毅达

    ISSN 1000-1093

    　

  • 主办：中国兵工学会

    出版：《兵工学报》 编辑部

    CN 11-2176/TJ

《兵工学报》是我国国防科技领域最具影响力的学术期刊之一，创刊于1979年，目前被国内所有重要数据库收录，其综合评价指标近年来一直名列兵工技术类科技期刊的首位；《兵工学报》目前还被国际上著名的检索机构美国......
兵工学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8) : 1586-1592. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.08.017
论文

考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计

  • 刘小平1,2， 张立杰1,2， 沈凯凯1,2， 高强1,2
作者信息 +

Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error

  • LIU Xiao-ping1,2， ZHANG Li-jie1,2， SHEN Kai-kai1,2， GAO Qiang1,2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

步进应力加速退化试验已发展成高可靠、长寿命产品可靠性评估与剩余寿命估计的主要试验方法。为研究测量误差在基于步进应力加速退化试验方法剩余寿命估计中的影响，建立了基于Wiener过程的考虑个体差异和测量误差的退化模型。将Wiener过程的漂移系数随机化描述个体差异，在首达时间意义下得到了寿命分布的概率密度函数。基于极大似然估计法对模型中引入的未知参数进行估计。采用蒙特卡洛方法对激光器的性能退化进行了仿真研究。研究结果表明，考虑测量误差的退化模型的模型拟合性和剩余寿命估计精度都优于不考虑测量误差的方法，可以提高可靠性估计的精度与剩余寿命预测的准确性。

Abstract

Accelerated degradation test (ADT) has been developed into a main test method, which can be used to estimate the reliability and remaining useful life (RUL) of products with high reliability and long life. In order to study the effect of measurement error on the estimation of RUL in the step stress accelerated degradation test, a degradation process modeling based on Wiener process model considering the measurement error and the individual variation is proposed. The drift coefficient of Wiener process is randomized to describe the individual variation in different equipment, and the probability density function of life distribution is obtained at first hitting time. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the unknown parameters introduced in the model. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the performance degradation of laser. The results show that the fitting of model and the accuracy of RUL estimation in the degradation model considering the measurement error are better than those in the model without considering the measurement error, which can enhance the estimation accuracy of reliability and the prediction accuracy of RUL.Key

关键词

概率论 / 随机过程 / 剩余寿命估计 / 步进应力 / 测量误差 / 极大似然估计

Key words

probabilitytheory / stochasticprocess / remainingusefullifeestimation / stepstress / measurementerror / maximumlikelihoodestimation

引用本文

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

导出引用
刘小平， 张立杰， 沈凯凯， 高强. 考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计. 兵工学报. 2017, 38(8): 1586-1592 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.08.017
LIU Xiao-ping， ZHANG Li-jie， SHEN Kai-kai， GAO Qiang. Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error. Acta Armamentarii. 2017, 38(8): 1586-1592 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.08.017

参考文献



［1］潘骏, 刘红杰, 陈文华, 等. 基于步进加速退化试验的航天电连接器接触可靠性评估[J]. 中国机械工程, 2011, 22(10): 1197-1200.
PAN Jun, LIU Hong-jie, CHEN Wen-hua, et al. Contact reliability assessment of aerospace electrical connector based on step-up - stress accelerated degradation testing[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2011, 22(10): 1197-1200. (in Chinese)
[2］JunY, Mingge X U, Zhong W. Research of step-down stress accelerated degradation data assessment method of a certain type of missile tank[J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2012, 25(6): 917-924.
[3］陈循, 张春华. 加速试验技术的研究、应用与发展[J]. 机械工程学报, 2009, 45(8): 130-136.
CHEN Xun, ZHANG Chun-hua. Research, application and development of accelerated testing[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2009, 45(8): 130-136. (in Chinese)
[4］潘骏, 王小云, 陈文华, 等. 基于多元性能参数的加速退化试验方案优化设计研究[J]. 机械工程学报, 2012, 48(2): 30-35.
PAN Jun, WANG Xiao-yun, CHEN Wen-hua, et al. Research on optimal design of accelerated degradation test plan based on multiple performance parameters[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2012, 48(2): 30-35. (in Chinese)
[5］邓爱民, 陈循, 张春华, 等. 加速退化试验技术综述[J]. 兵工学报, 2007, 28(8): 1002-1007.
DENG Ai-min, CHEN Xun, ZHANG Chun-hua, et al. A comprehensive review of accelerated degradation testing[J]. Acta Armamentari, 2007, 28(8): 1002-1007. (in Chinese)
[6］NAIR V N. Estimation of reliability in field—performance studies: discussion[J]. Technometrics, 1988, 30(4): 379-383.
[7］Cai M, Yang D, Zheng J, et al. Thermal degradation kinetics of LED lamps in step-up-stress and step-down-stress accelerated degradation testing[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering, 2016, 107:918-926.
[8］Huang J, GoluboviAc＇G2 D S, Koh S, et al. Lumen degradation modeling of white-light LEDs in step stress accelerated degradation test[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2016, 154:152-159.
[9］Wang H, Wang G, Duan F. Planning of step-stress accelerated degradation test based on the inverse Gaussian process[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2016, 154: 97-105.

[10］司小胜, 胡昌华, 周东华. 带测量误差的非线性退化过程建模与剩余寿命估计[J]. 自动化学报, 2013, 39(5): 530-541.
SI Xiao-sheng, HU Chang-hua, ZHOU Dong-hua. Nonlinear degradation process modeling and remaining useful life estimation subject to measurement error[J］.Acta Automatica Sinica, 2013, 39(5): 530-541. (in Chinese)
[11］WangX, Lin S, Wang S, et al. Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump[J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2016, 29(3): 779-788.
[12］Peng C Y, Tseng S T. Mis-specification analysis of linear degradation models[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2009, 58(3): 444-455.
[13］潘正强, 周经伦, 孙权. 基于 Wiener 过程的步进应力加速退化建模[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2011, 33(4): 963-968.
PAN Zheng-qiang, ZHOU Jing-lun, SUN Quan. Step-stress accelerated degradation modeling based on Wiener process[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2011, 33(4): 963-968. (in Chinese)
[14］Hu C H, Lee M Y, Tang J. Optimum step-stress accelerated degradation test for Wiener degradation process under constraints[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 241(2): 412-421.
[15］唐圣金, 郭晓松, 周召发, 等. 步进应力加速退化试验的建模与剩余寿命估计[J]. 机械工程学报, 2014, 50(16): 33-40.
TANG Sheng-jin, GUO Xiao-song, ZHOU Zhao-fa, et al. Stepstress accelerated degradation process modeling and remaining useful life estimation[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2014, 50(16): 33-40.(in Chinese)
[16］蔡忠义, 陈云翔, 张诤敏,等. 非线性步进加速退化数据的可靠性评估方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(3):576-582.
CAI Zhong-yi, CHEN Yun-xiang, ZHANG Zheng-min, et al. Reliability assessment method of nonlinear step-stress accelerated degradation data[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016 ,42 (3) : 576-582. (in Chinese)
[17］肖倩, 郭昊, 答雯, 等. 带测量误差的 Wiener 退化过程最佳试验配置设计[J]. 工业工程与管理, 2013, 18(5): 48-52.
XIAO Qian, GUO Hao, DA Wen, et al. Design of an optimal test configuration based on Wiener degradation on process with measurement error[J]. Industrial Engineering and Management, 2013, 18(5): 48-52. (in Chinese)
[18］Meeker W Q, Escorbar L A. Statistical methods for reliability data[M].Hoboken, NJ, US: John Wiley & Sons, 1998: 642-643.




第38卷
第8期2017年8月兵工学报ACTA
ARMAMENTARIIVol.38No.8Aug.2017

416

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail
段落导航
相关文章

/

〈 〉